Five Below
FIVE
$238.56
-2.45%
Five Below, Inc. is a specialty value retailer that offers a broad assortment of trend-right, high-quality merchandise—including select brands and licensed products—at price points primarily under $5, targeting tweens, teens, and the 'kid in all of us.' As a dominant player in the extreme-value retail segment, Five Below differentiates itself through its 'Wow' treasure-hunt shopping experience and rapid store expansion, competing against both traditional discounters and dollar stores. The current investor narrative centers on the company's impressive post-pandemic recovery and growth acceleration, highlighted by a 32.5% YoY revenue surge in Q1 2026 and a successful navigation of tariff pressures, which has driven the stock to near 52-week highs and fueled debates about the sustainability of its momentum amid consumer spending concerns.…
FIVE
Five Below
$238.56
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy FIVE Today?
Rating: Buy. Five Below is a high-growth retailer with accelerating revenue and strong execution, supported by a consensus 'Buy' rating and an average target price of $269.29, implying 10.1% upside. The thesis is that the company's value proposition and expansion strategy will drive sustained earnings growth, justifying the premium valuation.
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FIVE 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish, driven by the company's exceptional growth and reasonable valuation. The key risk is the stock's proximity to its 52-week high, which limits near-term upside. However, the strong fundamentals and positive analyst sentiment suggest continued outperformance. An upgrade to high confidence would occur if the company maintains growth above 30% and expands margins, while a downgrade would be triggered by a significant deceleration in revenue or a major macro shock.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Five Below's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $269.29 and implied upside of +12.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$269.29
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+12.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$220 - $350
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $220.00 to a high of $350.00, representing a wide spread of 59.1% from the low to the high. The high target of $350.00 implies a potential upside of 43.1% and likely assumes continued strong comparable sales growth, successful expansion, and multiple expansion. The low target of $220.00 suggests a downside of 10.0% and may price in risks such as consumer spending weakness, tariff impacts, or competitive pressures. Recent ratings actions show a mix of upgrades and downgrades, with Mizuho upgrading from Neutral to Outperform in July 2026, while Wolfe Research downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform in June 2026, indicating some divergence in sentiment but overall a positive outlook.
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Bulls vs Bears: FIVE Investment Factors
Five Below presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, strong execution, and a reasonable valuation relative to growth. However, the stock is near its 52-week high, and the market's concerns about consumer spending and tariffs could trigger volatility. The bull case is currently stronger, supported by a PEG of 0.71, analyst upside, and proven resilience, but the key tension is whether the company can sustain its high growth rate in a challenging macro environment. If growth decelerates, the stock could face multiple compression, but if it continues to beat expectations, there is significant upside to the $350 high target.
Bullish
- Revenue Growth Accelerating to 32.5%: Q1 2026 revenue surged 32.5% YoY to $1.286B, up from 23.6% in Q1 2025 and 23.8% in Q2 2025, demonstrating accelerating momentum. This acceleration is driven by strong performance across all segments, with Leisure contributing $620.9M, indicating broad-based consumer demand.
- Undervalued on PEG Ratio of 0.71: With a PEG ratio of 0.71, the stock trades at a discount to its growth rate, suggesting the market is not fully pricing in future earnings expansion. This is supported by a forward PE of 24.8x versus trailing 29.4x, implying expected earnings growth of ~18.5%.
- Strong Analyst Consensus with 10% Upside: The average analyst target of $269.29 implies a 10.1% upside from the current price of $244.54, with a high target of $350.00 offering 43.1% potential. The consensus rating is 'Buy' with a mean score of 1.72, indicating broad institutional optimism.
- Resilient to Tariff Pressures: Despite concerns about Trump tariffs, Q4 2025 earnings beat and bullish guidance show the company has successfully managed cost increases. This resilience is reflected in the stock's recovery from a June 2026 pullback, climbing from $176.25 to near 52-week highs.
Bearish
- Near 52-Week High with Limited Upside: At $244.54, the stock trades at 97.2% of its 52-week range (high $251.63), leaving little room for further upside without new catalysts. The low target of $220.00 implies a 10.0% downside, and the stock may be approaching overbought conditions.
- High Valuation with PE of 29.4x: The trailing PE of 29.4x is elevated compared to the broader market, and the forward PE of 24.8x still commands a premium. If growth decelerates, multiple compression could lead to significant downside, as seen in the June 2026 selloff when the stock dropped 12% post-earnings.
- Consumer Spending Vulnerability: As a discretionary retailer, Five Below is sensitive to consumer spending trends. The June 2026 selloff was driven by fears of consumer weakness and tariff impacts, despite strong past performance. A downturn in consumer confidence could pressure sales and margins.
- Mixed Analyst Sentiment: While the consensus is Buy, recent actions show divergence: Mizuho upgraded to Outperform in July 2026, but Wolfe Research downgraded to Peer Perform in June 2026. This mixed sentiment suggests uncertainty about the sustainability of growth.
FIVE Technical Analysis
Five Below's stock is in a powerful long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +82.0% and a 6-month gain of +18.7%. The current price of $244.54 sits at 97.2% of its 52-week range (low $132.00, high $251.63), indicating strong momentum and bullish sentiment, though it also suggests the stock may be approaching overbought conditions. The price has recovered sharply from a June 2026 pullback, climbing from a low of $176.25 in early July to recent highs, demonstrating resilience and buyer conviction.
Beta
0.97
0.97x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-28.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$135-$252
Price range past year
Annual Return
+76.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FIVE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +17.7% | +4.0% |
| 3m | +11.3% | +5.3% |
| 6m | +11.3% | +12.6% |
| 1y | +76.7% | +20.1% |
| ytd | +23.3% | +13.3% |
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FIVE Fundamental Analysis
Five Below's revenue trajectory is robustly accelerating, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.286 billion representing a 32.5% YoY increase, up from 23.6% growth in Q1 2025 and 23.8% in Q2 2025. This acceleration is driven by strong performance across all segments, with Leisure (the largest segment) contributing $620.9 million, followed by Fashion and Home at $352.6 million and Party and Snack at $312.1 million. The company's top-line momentum is supported by new store openings and robust comparable sales, indicating that the value proposition is resonating with consumers despite a challenging macro environment.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.3B
2026-05
Revenue YoY Growth
+32.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
33.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$505269000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FIVE Overvalued?
Given Five Below's positive net income, the PE ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 29.4x, while the forward PE is 24.8x, implying that the market expects earnings growth of approximately 18.5% over the next year. This forward discount is consistent with the company's strong growth trajectory and suggests that the market is pricing in continued earnings expansion, though the PEG ratio of 0.71 indicates that the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth rate.
PE
29.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 7x~129x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Five Below's financial health is generally solid, with a current ratio of 2.01 and positive free cash flow of $505M TTM. However, the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.93 indicates moderate leverage, which could become a burden if sales decline. The company's net margin of 7.5% is thin, leaving limited buffer against cost inflation or pricing pressure. Revenue concentration in discretionary categories like Leisure (48% of Q1 revenue) exposes the company to shifts in consumer preferences. Earnings volatility is evident, with Q3 2025 net income dropping to $36.5M from $41.1M in Q2 2025, highlighting sensitivity to seasonal and macro factors.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Consumer spending vulnerability, as a discretionary retailer, with a beta of 0.975, the stock is sensitive to economic downturns. 2) Tariff impacts, which could erode margins if costs rise. 3) Competitive pressures from dollar stores and online retailers, which could impact market share. 4) Valuation risk, as the stock trades at a premium PE of 29.4x, which could compress if growth slows. The most severe risk is a consumer spending downturn, which could lead to a 46% downside to the 52-week low of $132.
The 12-month forecast is positive, with a base case target of $250-$280 (50% probability), a bull case of $300-$350 (30% probability), and a bear case of $180-$220 (20% probability). The most likely scenario is the base case, which assumes continued growth at a slightly decelerating pace. The average analyst target is $269.29, implying a 10.1% upside. The key assumption is that revenue growth remains above 25% and margins stay stable. If the company beats expectations, the stock could reach the high target of $350.
FIVE is fairly valued relative to its growth, with a trailing PE of 29.4x and a forward PE of 24.8x. The PEG ratio of 0.71 indicates that the stock is undervalued compared to its expected earnings growth of ~18.5%. Compared to the broader market, the stock trades at a premium, but this is justified by its superior growth profile. The market is pricing in continued strong performance, as evidenced by the high analyst target of $350. If growth decelerates, the valuation could be seen as rich, but current metrics suggest a reasonable entry point.
Yes, FIVE is a good buy for growth-oriented investors, given its accelerating revenue growth of 32.5% YoY and a PEG ratio of 0.71, which suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth. The average analyst target of $269.29 implies a 10.1% upside, and the consensus rating is 'Buy'. However, the stock is near its 52-week high, so investors should be prepared for volatility. The biggest risk is a consumer spending downturn, which could lead to a 10% downside to the low target of $220. Overall, the risk-reward is favorable for those with a long-term horizon.
FIVE is suitable for long-term investment, given its strong growth trajectory and expansion potential. The company has a beta of 0.975, indicating market-like volatility, but its 1-year price change of +82.0% demonstrates significant upside. The stock pays no dividend, so investors rely on capital appreciation. For short-term traders, the stock's proximity to its 52-week high offers limited upside, but volatility provides opportunities. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to capture the full growth potential, as the company continues to expand its store base and market share.
