LMT

Lockheed Martin

$629.75

+1.09%
Oct 28, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Lockheed Martin is the world's largest defense prime contractor, designing and manufacturing advanced military platforms across four reporting segments: Aeronautics (led by the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of segment revenue), Rotary and Mission Systems (including the Sikorsky helicopter franchise), Missiles and Fire Control (tactical missiles and missile defense), and Space (satellites plus equity income from the United Launch Alliance joint venture). Its competitive identity rests on program-of-record incumbency, decades-long government relationships, and the F-35's role as the backbone of Western air power, giving it a moat that few industrial companies can replicate. The current investor narrative has pivoted decisively toward the missiles and missile defense franchise, which UBS recently flagged as capable of driving roughly 20% annual sales growth, amplified by geopolitical flashpoints such as Iran tensions and the Trump administration's JATM procurement deal that signal a sustained step-up in munitions spending. That bullish demand backdrop, combined with a record backlog and a sharp Q2 earnings rebound, has re-energized the stock even as investors continue to debate F-35 program execution, margin durability, and whether defense multiples have run ahead of fundamentals.

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LMT 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $629.75
Average Target $629.75
High Target $724.21
Low Target $535.29

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Lockheed Martin's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $645.48 and implied upside of +2.5% versus the current price.

Average Target

$645.48

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+2.5%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

—

covering this stock

Price Range

$498 - $835

Analyst target range

Coverage is robust, with 21 analysts following Lockheed Martin and a consensus recommendation of Buy (mean rating of 2.30 on a scale where lower is more bullish). The average target price of $632.90 implies roughly 4.8% upside from the current $604.18, a modest gap that suggests the stock has already rallied close to where the Street sees fair value, even as the consensus leans constructive. The bullish tilt is reinforced by recent rating actions, including UBS upgrading to Buy from Neutral on September 8, 2026, and Citigroup moving to Buy from Neutral on July 1, 2026, indicating improving sentiment around the missiles franchise and earnings recovery. The target range is wide, from a low of $498.00 to a high of $756.00, a spread of about 52% that signals meaningful disagreement about the trajectory. The high target of $756.00, roughly 25% above the current price, likely assumes sustained 20% annual growth in the missiles division, multiple expansion toward the upper end of the historical band, and continued backlog conversion, while the low target of $498.00, about 18% below the current price, prices in margin compression from program charges, slower F-35 deliveries, or a broader defense budget slowdown. The presence of several Hold and Equal Weight ratings from Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital, and TD Cowen tempers the bullish consensus, and the wide dispersion combined with the stock's recent 15% one-month surge suggests analysts may be playing catch-up with price targets, leaving room for upward revisions if the missiles-driven growth thesis is confirmed by upcoming results.

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Bulls vs Bears: LMT Investment Factors

The bull case currently has stronger evidence: revenue is accelerating at 10.51% year-over-year, margins have recovered from the Q2 2025 trough (1.88% to 9.15% net margin), free cash flow of $8.73 billion comfortably funds the dividend, and the missiles franchise has a credible 20% growth narrative backed by the JATM deal and fresh UBS and Citigroup upgrades. The bear case is not about business quality but about price: at $604.18 the stock trades at 22.43x trailing earnings near the top of its historical range, and the $632.90 average analyst target leaves only 4.8% upside after a 15.15% one-month surge. The single most important tension is whether the missiles-driven growth thesis is confirmed by upcoming results — if Missiles and Fire Control delivers on the 20% growth expectation, forward EPS of roughly $41.00 validates the 18.28x multiple and the $756.00 high target comes into play; if growth disappoints, the stock is left priced for a recovery that has already happened. Secondary but material is F-35 execution, since Aeronautics at $8.11 billion remains the largest segment and any new program charges would reopen the margin question.

Bullish

  • Missiles franchise re-rating catalyst: UBS upgraded LMT to Buy on September 8, 2026, flagging the Missiles and Fire Control segment as capable of roughly 20% annual sales growth. That segment generated $4.10 billion in Q2 2026, and the Trump administration's JATM procurement deal plus Iran-driven munitions shortages signal a multi-year spending step-up rather than a one-quarter spike.
  • Earnings recovery is dramatic and confirmed: Q2 2026 net income of $1.84 billion on a 9.15% net margin compares with just $342 million and a 1.88% margin in Q2 2025, while gross margin expanded from 4.04% to 12.19%. Q1 2026 gross margin of 11.53% and Q4 2025's 11.42% show the recovery is holding across quarters, not a single-quarter artifact.
  • Revenue accelerating with record backlog: Q2 2026 revenue of $20.06 billion grew 10.51% year-over-year, accelerating from $18.02 billion in Q1 2026, with consensus pointing to roughly $100.96 billion for the year. Aeronautics remains the anchor at $8.11 billion, but the incremental growth is coming from the higher-multiple munitions franchise.
  • Strong free cash flow funds capital returns: Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of $8.73 billion, including $2.92 billion in Q2 2026 alone against just $318 million of capex, comfortably covers the $796 million quarterly dividend. The 2.80% yield with a 62.4% payout ratio provides an income cushion that supports the multiple.

Bearish

  • Analyst upside nearly exhausted: The $632.90 average target price implies only about 4.8% upside from $604.18, meaning the stock has already rallied close to where the Street sees fair value. With 21 analysts and a mean rating of 2.30, several Hold and Equal Weight ratings from Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital, and TD Cowen temper the constructive consensus.
  • Valuation near top of historical band: The 22.43x trailing PE sits near the top of Lockheed's historical 14.9x-23.1x range, and the 16.62x price-to-book is extreme. The 18.28x forward multiple depends on delivering roughly $41.00 in 2027 EPS, so any earnings disappointment leaves the stock exposed to multiple compression toward the 15.7x level seen as recently as Q2 2026.
  • Margin durability remains unproven: Trailing net margin of 6.68% versus the latest quarter's 9.15% shows how sensitive results are to program charges, and the Q2 2025 trough of 1.88% net margin is a fresh reminder. Gross margin of 10.15% and operating margin of 10.30% sit at the low end of defense-prime norms, capping upside if fixed-price programs mis-execute.
  • Leverage and lumpy cash conversion: Debt-to-equity of 3.23x and a current ratio of just 1.09 leave little balance-sheet slack, making the company dependent on consistent operating cash flow. Q1 2026 free cash flow was negative $291 million due to a $1.45 billion working-capital drain, illustrating that cash generation can swing sharply quarter to quarter.

LMT Technical Analysis

Lockheed Martin is in a sustained, powerful uptrend: the stock is up 23.79% over the past year and 21.55% year-to-date, and at $604.18 it sits at roughly 65.5% of its 52-week range of $437.25 to $692.00. That positioning is meaningfully above the midpoint but still about 12.7% below the 52-week high, implying the stock has room to run before hitting overextension territory rather than being a chase at the highs. The 27.35% maximum drawdown over the trailing period confirms this has been a volatile advance punctuated by sharp corrections rather than a smooth grind higher, which matters for how traders should size entries. Recent momentum is clearly accelerating: the stock gained 15.15% in the last month versus a 3.70% three-month gain and a 17.67% six-month gain, meaning the bulk of the intermediate-term move has been compressed into the past four weeks. That acceleration is corroborated by relative strength, with LMT outperforming SPY by 16.17 percentage points over one month (SPY fell 1.02% while LMT surged), a dramatic reversal from the three-month relative strength of just 0.85 points, which suggests a fresh catalyst-driven re-rating rather than a slow drift. The most recent sessions show a sharp breakout, with the stock jumping from $551.51 on October 21 to $589.91 and then $604.18, a 2.42% single-day gain on above-average volume of about 1.82 million shares, indicating conviction buying. Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the 52-week low of $437.25, with intermediate support around the $500-$510 zone where the stock consolidated in early October, while resistance is the 52-week high of $692.00, roughly 14.5% above the current price. A breakout above $692 would signal a new leg higher and likely force momentum and trend-following funds to add exposure, whereas a breakdown below $500 would invalidate the recent breakout structure and refocus attention on the $437 floor. With a beta not provided in the data set, volatility should instead be gauged from the 27.35% max drawdown and the wide 52-week range of $437.25 to $692.00, a 58% spread that underscores the need for disciplined position sizing.

Beta

0.10

0.10x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-27.4%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$437-$692

Price range past year

Annual Return

+29.6%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodLMT ReturnS&P 500
1m+21.5%+0.9%
3m+9.7%+4.1%
6m+22.8%+7.2%
1y+29.6%+12.4%
ytd+26.7%+13.3%

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LMT Fundamental Analysis

Revenue is growing at a healthy clip: Q2 2026 revenue reached $20.06 billion, up 10.51% year-over-year from $18.16 billion in Q2 2025, and the multi-quarter trend shows acceleration from $18.02 billion in Q1 2026 and $20.33 billion in Q4 2025. Segment data shows Aeronautics as the dominant contributor at $8.11 billion, followed by Rotary and Mission Systems at $4.35 billion, Missiles and Fire Control at $4.10 billion, and Space at $3.50 billion, with the missiles franchise the most likely incremental growth driver given the JATM deal and elevated munitions demand. The trajectory implies a company re-accelerating after a soft patch, with consensus revenue estimates of roughly $100.96 billion (range $97.78 billion to $103.37 billion) pointing to continued mid-to-high single-digit expansion. Profitability is solid and improving: Q2 2026 net income was $1.84 billion on a 9.15% net margin, up sharply from $342 million and a 1.88% margin in the depressed Q2 2025, while gross margin of 12.19% expanded from 4.04% a year earlier and operating margin of 12.36% recovered from 4.12%. The Q2 2025 trough reflected program charges that have since been worked through, and the current 10.15% gross margin and 10.30% operating margin sit in line with the low-double-digit margins typical of defense primes, where cost-plus and fixed-price mix dictates the ceiling. The key question is durability: Q1 2026 gross margin of 11.53% and Q4 2025's 11.42% suggest the recovery is holding, but the thin 6.68% net margin on a trailing basis versus 9.15% in the latest quarter shows how sensitive results are to charges. The balance sheet carries meaningful leverage but is manageable for a defense prime: debt-to-equity is 3.23x, the current ratio is 1.09, and ROE is an exceptional 74.65% (flattered by the leveraged capital structure), while ROA of 8.65% reflects the capital-intensive nature of the business. Free cash flow is the standout, with $8.73 billion on a trailing-twelve-month basis and $2.92 billion generated in Q2 2026 alone against $318 million of capex, a conversion rate that comfortably funds the $796 million quarterly dividend (a 2.80% yield with a 62.4% payout ratio) and debt service. The main caveat is working-capital volatility: Q1 2026 free cash flow was negative $291 million due to a $1.45 billion working-capital drain, so cash generation is lumpy even if the annual trend is strong, and the 3.23x leverage means the company depends on consistent operating cash flow rather than external financing to sustain its capital returns.

Quarterly Revenue

$20.1B

2026-06

Revenue YoY Growth

+10.5%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

12.2%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$8.7B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Aeronautics
Missiles And Fire Control
Rotary and Mission Systems
Space

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Valuation Analysis: Is LMT Overvalued?

Because Lockheed Martin is solidly profitable with trailing net income of roughly $5.0 billion and positive EBITDA, the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric; the stock trades at 22.43x trailing earnings versus 18.28x forward earnings, and the 18.4% compression between the two implies the market expects meaningful EPS growth, consistent with consensus 2027 EPS estimates of about $41.00. That forward multiple of 18.3x is the more relevant anchor for a defense prime and frames the stock as reasonably valued rather than stretched. On a peer basis, the 22.4x trailing PE and 1.49x PS ratio compare favorably with the premium multiples often commanded by high-growth defense names, and the 1.90x EV/Sales and 14.81x EV/EBITDA are moderate for a company with a record backlog and a re-accelerating missiles franchise; the 16.62x price-to-book looks extreme but is an artifact of the leveraged balance sheet rather than a genuine valuation signal. The 2.80% dividend yield and 62.4% payout ratio add an income cushion that supports the multiple, while the negative PEG ratio of -6.05 is not meaningful given the earnings trough in the comparison base and should be disregarded. Historically, Lockheed's PE has ranged from roughly 14.9x to 23.1x over the past several years, with the current 22.4x trailing multiple near the top of that band and the 18.3x forward multiple closer to the middle, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic but not euphoric expectations. The stock's own history shows it traded at 15.7x as recently as Q2 2026 and 20.8x at year-end 2025, so the current premium reflects the earnings recovery and the missiles-driven re-rating rather than a structural change in the business; investors should watch whether forward EPS delivery validates the 18.3x multiple or whether the stock is vulnerable to multiple compression if growth disappoints.

PE

22.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 12x~23x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

14.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial and operational risks center on margin fragility and balance-sheet leverage. Trailing net margin of 6.68% versus the latest quarter's 9.15% demonstrates how quickly profitability swings with program charges, and the Q2 2025 quarter — when net income collapsed to $342 million on a 1.88% margin — is a recent, concrete example of that volatility. Debt-to-equity of 3.23x and a current ratio of 1.09 leave limited cushion, and Q1 2026 free cash flow of negative $291 million from a $1.45 billion working-capital drain shows cash generation is lumpy despite the $8.73 billion trailing figure. Revenue concentration compounds this: Aeronautics at $8.11 billion derives roughly two-thirds of its revenue from the F-35, so a single program's delivery schedule or cost overrun can move consolidated results.

Market and competitive risks are primarily valuation and budget-cycle related. At 22.43x trailing earnings, near the top of the 14.9x-23.1x historical band, the stock has little room for multiple expansion and meaningful room for compression toward the 15.7x level seen as recently as Q2 2026. The 16.62x price-to-book is an artifact of leverage rather than a genuine signal, but it underscores how thin the equity base is relative to the enterprise. Competitive threats are structural rather than immediate — Northrop Grumman's loss of the CCA hardware contract and Rocket Lab's $397 million Space Force award show the Pentagon is diversifying suppliers in drones and small launch, areas adjacent to Lockheed's space and autonomy ambitions. Defense budgets are politically cyclical, and the current munitions upcycle is partly geopolitically driven (Iran tensions, JATM procurement), meaning a de-escalation could cool the demand narrative quickly.

The worst-case scenario is a convergence of margin disappointment and multiple compression. If F-35 deliveries slip and new program charges hit Aeronautics while missiles growth undershoots the 20% expectation, forward EPS could miss the $41.00 consensus, forcing the multiple back toward 15.7x — a combination that would plausibly take the stock toward the $498.00 analyst low target, about 18% below the current $604.18. A deeper drawdown toward the $437.25 52-week low would represent roughly a 28% loss from here, consistent with the 27.35% maximum drawdown already experienced over the trailing period. Investors should size positions recognizing that a 25-30% drawdown is a demonstrated, not hypothetical, risk for this stock.