Newmont Mining Corporation
NEM
$123.41
-0.79%
Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold mining company, operating a portfolio of 11 mines and interests in two joint ventures across the Americas, Africa, Australia, and Papua New Guinea, while also producing meaningful byproducts including copper, silver, zinc, and lead. The company cemented its dominant scale through the 2019 Goldcorp acquisition, the Nevada joint venture with Barrick, and the November 2023 purchase of Newcrest, giving it roughly two decades of gold reserves and an expected 5.3 million ounces of gold sales in 2026 from continuing operations after divesting six higher-cost mines. The current investor narrative centers on whether Newmont can convert a powerful gold price rally into durable earnings momentum despite declining production volumes and rising cost pressures, with the stock surging 34.5% in August alone on gold strength, a strategic Barrick deal, and expectations of central bank buying and Treasury yield-capping measures. At the same time, analysts debate whether the company's aggressive debt reduction, $3.2 billion net cash position, and valuation discount to peers justify a re-rating, or whether production challenges and cost inflation will cap upside.…
NEM
Newmont Mining Corporation
$123.41
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NEM Today?
Rating: Buy. Newmont offers a compelling combination of strong free cash flow, a fortress balance sheet, and a discounted valuation relative to its growth prospects, supported by a 'buy' consensus from 21 analysts with an average target price of $134.83, implying 9.3% upside. The core thesis is that the company can continue to generate substantial cash flow even with declining production, as long as gold prices remain elevated, and use that cash to reduce debt and return capital to shareholders.
The supporting evidence is robust: Q1 2026 revenue grew 47.46% year-over-year to $7.183 billion, gross margin expanded to 62.44%, and net income reached $3.262 billion. Free cash flow is $12.273 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis, funding $1.895 billion in buybacks and $282 million in dividends in Q1 2026 alone. The forward PE of 12.10x is attractive compared to the trailing PE of 15.58x, and the PEG ratio of 0.125 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate. The debt-to-equity of 0.169 and current ratio of 2.287 indicate a strong financial position.
However, risks include declining production volumes, cost inflation, and a valuation that is near the high end of its historical range. The stock would upgrade to a strong buy if production stabilizes and gold prices hold above $2,500/oz, but it would downgrade to a hold or sell if gold prices fall below $2,200/oz or if production declines accelerate. Relative to its history and peers, Newmont appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued, but the margin of safety is limited given the cyclical nature of gold mining.
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NEM 12-Month Price Forecast
Newmont presents a balanced risk-reward profile. The company's strong cash flow, low debt, and discounted valuation are offset by declining production and cost pressures. The analyst consensus is bullish, but the wide target range reflects uncertainty. I would upgrade to bullish if gold prices sustain above $2,600/oz and production stabilizes, and downgrade to bearish if gold falls below $2,200/oz or if Q2 earnings miss expectations. The stock is suitable for investors seeking exposure to gold with lower volatility than peers, but position sizing should reflect the cyclical risks.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Newmont Mining Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $135.79 and implied upside of +10.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$135.79
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+10.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$67 - $170
Analyst target range
Newmont is covered by 21 analysts with a consensus recommendation of "buy" and a recommendation mean of 1.57 (where 1.0 is a strong buy and 5.0 is a sell), indicating a clearly bullish consensus. The average price target of $134.83 implies approximately 9.3% upside from the current price of $123.41, a moderate but meaningful expected return. The consensus leans bullish, supported by a cluster of recent positive actions: TD Cowen upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy on July 14, 2026, while Scotiabank, B of A Securities, RBC Capital, Jefferies, UBS, BMO Capital, and CIBC all maintained Buy or Outperform ratings through mid-2026. The absence of any sell ratings and the concentration of Outperform/Buy actions suggest analysts view the gold price environment and Newmont's cost discipline as supportive of further gains. The target range is wide, spanning from a low of $67.00 to a high of $170.00 — a 154% spread that signals significant disagreement about the company's trajectory. The high target of $170.00 implies roughly 37.7% upside and likely assumes sustained gold price strength, successful execution on production targets, further debt reduction, and multiple expansion as the market re-rates the stock toward peer valuations. The low target of $67.00, roughly 45.7% below the current price, appears to price in a sharp gold price correction, margin compression from rising input costs, and disappointment on production volumes. The wide spread, combined with the recent TD Cowen upgrade and the stock's 34.5% August surge, suggests analysts are recalibrating upward but remain divided on how much of the gold rally is durable — a dynamic that argues for position sizing discipline despite the favorable consensus.
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Bulls vs Bears: NEM Investment Factors
The bull case currently has stronger evidence, driven by explosive revenue growth, exceptional margins, a fortress balance sheet, and a clear analyst consensus. However, the bear case highlights real risks: declining production volumes, cost pressures, and a valuation that already prices in optimistic gold assumptions. The single most important tension is whether gold prices can sustain their rally long enough to offset Newmont's declining production and cost inflation. If gold holds above $2,500/oz, the bull case likely prevails; if it corrects sharply, the bear case could quickly materialize.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue and Margin Expansion: Q1 2026 revenue surged 47.46% year-over-year to $7.183 billion, while gross margin expanded to 62.44% from 41.68% a year earlier. Net income reached $3.262 billion with a 45.41% net margin, demonstrating powerful operating leverage from higher realized gold prices.
- Fortress Balance Sheet and Strong Cash Flow: Debt-to-equity is just 0.169, the current ratio is 2.287, and the company holds $8.811 billion in cash. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $12.273 billion, funding $1.895 billion in buybacks and $282 million in dividends in Q1 2026 alone.
- Compelling Valuation with Growth Optionality: The forward PE of 12.10x is well below the trailing PE of 15.58x, implying expected earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 0.125 is strikingly low, and the 1.00% dividend yield with a conservative 15.61% payout ratio leaves ample room for capital returns.
- Strong Analyst Consensus and Upside: 21 analysts rate the stock a 'buy' with a mean recommendation of 1.57, and the average price target of $134.83 implies 9.3% upside. The high target of $170.00 suggests 37.7% upside if gold prices remain elevated and production stabilizes.
Bearish
- Declining Production Volumes: Newmont expects to sell roughly 5.3 million ounces of gold in 2026 from continuing operations after divesting six higher-cost mines. This production decline could pressure revenue growth if gold prices plateau or retreat.
- Rising Cost Pressures: Despite margin expansion, cost of revenue rose to $2.698 billion in Q1 2026 from $2.841 billion in Q1 2025, and operating expenses increased. The company faces ongoing cost inflation that could erode profitability if gold prices fall.
- Earnings Volatility and Tax Impact: Q4 2025 net margin dipped to 19.80% due to a $2.07 billion tax expense, highlighting quarterly earnings volatility. Trailing EPS of $0.064 is low relative to the forward estimate of $8.985, indicating significant earnings uncertainty.
- Premium Valuation Relative to History: The price-to-book ratio of 3.26x is near the high end of its historical range (1.4x to 3.4x since 2022), and the trailing PE of 15.58x sits in the middle-to-upper portion of its recent band. This leaves limited margin of safety if gold prices retreat.
NEM Technical Analysis
Newmont is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, with the shares up 57.57% over the past year versus a 15.01% gain for SPY, delivering 42.56 percentage points of relative strength. At a current price of $123.41, the stock sits at roughly 83.3% of its 52-week range of $76.05 to $135.29, positioning it near the upper end of its annual band — a sign of strong momentum but also elevated vulnerability to profit-taking. The 52-week high of $135.29 was set in late August, and the stock has since pulled back modestly, suggesting the market is digesting a parabolic advance rather than reversing trend. Short-term momentum has cooled even as the longer-term trend remains firmly positive: the stock is down 1.34% over the past month and up 18.90% over three months, a deceleration from the 28.82% six-month gain and 21.92% year-to-date advance. This divergence — a flat-to-negative month against a strongly positive year — is consistent with a healthy consolidation after a sharp run, particularly given the stock's 34.5% August surge, rather than a trend reversal. Relative strength versus SPY has narrowed to -0.38 over the past month from +42.56 over the year, confirming that near-term leadership has faded while the structural uptrend remains intact. Key technical support rests at the 52-week low of $76.05, with intermediate support likely near the $110–$115 zone where the stock consolidated in May and early August; resistance is defined by the 52-week high of $135.29, and a decisive breakout above that level would signal a continuation of the gold-driven re-rating, while a breakdown below $110 would threaten the medium-term trend. With a beta of just 0.543, Newmont is roughly 46% less volatile than the broader market, meaning its 57.57% one-year gain was achieved with below-market systematic risk — an attractive risk-adjusted profile, though the stock's -32.4% max drawdown shows it is not immune to sharp corrections. Average volume of 21.47 million shares and a short ratio of 2.1 indicate liquid trading and no meaningful bearish positioning.
Beta
0.54
0.54x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$76-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
+57.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NEM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.3% | -0.5% |
| 3m | +18.9% | +2.3% |
| 6m | +28.8% | +16.6% |
| 1y | +57.6% | +14.8% |
| ytd | +21.9% | +11.7% |
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NEM Fundamental Analysis
Newmont's revenue trajectory has been exceptionally strong, with Q1 2026 revenue of $7.183 billion representing 47.46% year-over-year growth from $4.871 billion in Q1 2025. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent acceleration: revenue rose from $5.275 billion in Q2 2025 to $5.380 billion in Q3 2025, $6.571 billion in Q4 2025, and $7.183 billion in Q1 2026, a sequence that reflects both higher realized gold prices and the full integration of Newcrest assets. Segment data shows gold dore contributing $4.776 billion and sales from concentrate and other production adding $2.531 billion, indicating a diversified production base rather than reliance on a single stream. The growth trend strongly supports the investment case, though the company's own guidance for declining production volumes in 2026 introduces a potential headwind if gold prices plateau. Profitability is robust: Q1 2026 net income reached $3.262 billion with a 45.41% net margin, while gross margin expanded to 62.44% from 41.68% in Q1 2025 and 58.76% in Q4 2025. Operating margin stands at 46.85% and EBITDA margin at 76.31% for the quarter, levels that are exceptional even for the gold mining industry and reflect the powerful operating leverage of higher realized prices against a relatively fixed cost base. The margin expansion is broad-based, with gross profit rising to $4.485 billion in Q1 2026 from $2.030 billion a year earlier, though the sequential dip in Q4 2025 net margin to 19.80% (due to a $2.07 billion tax expense) shows quarterly volatility tied to tax and one-time items. The balance sheet is conservatively positioned: debt-to-equity of just 0.169, a current ratio of 2.287, and $8.811 billion in cash at the end of Q1 2026 against total debt that has been aggressively reduced. Free cash flow is substantial at $12.273 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis, with Q1 2026 free cash flow of $3.144 billion on operating cash flow of $3.785 billion and capital expenditure of $641 million. ROE of 20.92% and ROA of 15.76% confirm efficient capital deployment, while the company returned capital via $1.895 billion in buybacks and $282 million in dividends in Q1 2026 alone, funded entirely from internal cash generation with no reliance on external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+47.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
62.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$12.3B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NEM Overvalued?
Because Newmont is solidly profitable with trailing net income of $3.262 billion in the most recent quarter and positive EPS of $0.064 on a trailing basis, the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 15.58x and a forward PE of 12.10x, with the 22.4% compression between trailing and forward multiples implying the market expects meaningful earnings growth — consistent with consensus EPS estimates of $8.985 for the forward period. The PEG ratio of just 0.125 is strikingly low, suggesting the stock is inexpensive relative to its expected growth rate, though this metric can be distorted by cyclical earnings in the gold mining sector. Relative to the broader Basic Materials sector, Newmont's 15.58x trailing PE and 3.26x price-to-book appear reasonable, particularly given its 32.06% net margin and 49.78% gross margin, which are well above typical mining industry profitability. The PS ratio of 5.00x and EV/EBITDA of 7.31x are moderate for a company of Newmont's scale and cash generation, and the 1.00% dividend yield with a conservative 15.61% payout ratio leaves ample room for continued capital returns. Historically, Newmont's PE has ranged widely — from 7.18x in Q1 2025 to 65.05x in Q1 2024 and negative readings during loss periods in 2022 and 2023 — making the current 15.58x sit in the middle-to-upper portion of its recent band but far below the elevated multiples seen during earnings troughs. The price-to-book ratio of 3.26x is near the high end of its historical range (which has spanned roughly 1.4x to 3.4x since 2022), reflecting the market's willingness to pay up for the company's improved balance sheet and cash generation. The current valuation appears to price in optimistic gold price assumptions and continued margin expansion, leaving limited margin of safety if gold prices retreat or production costs rise.
PE
15.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 7x~65x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
7.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant. Newmont's production is expected to decline to 5.3 million ounces in 2026, down from prior levels, which could pressure revenue if gold prices stagnate. Cost of revenue rose to $2.698 billion in Q1 2026 from $2.841 billion a year earlier, and operating expenses increased, indicating persistent cost inflation. Additionally, quarterly earnings are volatile: Q4 2025 net margin fell to 19.80% due to a $2.07 billion tax expense, and trailing EPS is just $0.064, highlighting earnings uncertainty. The company's debt-to-equity of 0.169 is low, but the $8.811 billion cash position could be eroded by capital expenditures and dividends if cash flow declines.
Market and competitive risks are also material. Newmont trades at a trailing PE of 15.58x and a price-to-book of 3.26x, near the high end of its historical range, leaving limited margin of safety if gold prices correct. The stock's beta of 0.543 indicates lower volatility than the market, but it is still exposed to gold price swings, which are influenced by central bank policies and Treasury yield movements. Competitive pressures from peers like AngloGold Ashanti, which offers a higher dividend yield and faster growth, could lead to sector rotation away from Newmont. Recent news highlights production challenges and cost pressures, with analysts debating whether the gold rally can sustain earnings momentum.
The worst-case scenario involves a sharp gold price correction, production misses, and margin compression. If gold prices fall below $2,000/oz, Newmont's revenue could decline significantly, and its high fixed cost base would amplify margin pressure. The 52-week low of $76.05 represents a 38.4% downside from the current price of $123.41, and the analyst low target of $67.00 implies a 45.7% decline. A breakdown below the $110 support level could trigger a deeper sell-off, potentially testing the 52-week low. Investors could lose 38% to 46% in this adverse scenario, underscoring the importance of position sizing and risk management.
FAQ
The most severe risk is a sharp decline in gold prices, as NEM's revenue and margins are highly sensitive to gold price movements; a drop below $2,200/oz could trigger a 38% decline to the 52-week low of $76.05. Operational risks include declining production volumes, with 2026 guidance at 5.3 million ounces, and cost inflation that could erode margins. Financial risks are moderate given the low debt-to-equity of 0.169 and strong free cash flow, but quarterly earnings are volatile, as seen in Q4 2025 when a $2.07 billion tax expense cut net margin to 19.80%. Competitive risks include peers like AngloGold Ashanti offering higher dividend yields and faster growth, which could lead to sector rotation. Macro risks include a stronger dollar and rising real yields, which could pressure gold prices and NEM's stock.
The 12-month forecast includes three scenarios: a bull case with 30% probability targeting $150-$170, a base case with 50% probability targeting $125-$145, and a bear case with 20% probability targeting $67-$90. The base case is most likely, assuming gold prices average $2,500/oz and production meets guidance. The bull case requires gold above $2,800/oz and successful cost reduction, while the bear case assumes gold below $2,200/oz and production misses. The analyst average target of $134.83 aligns with the base case, implying 9.3% upside. Key assumptions include stable gold prices, no major operational disruptions, and continued capital returns.
NEM trades at a trailing PE of 15.58x and a forward PE of 12.10x, with a PEG ratio of 0.125, which suggests undervaluation relative to expected earnings growth. The price-to-book ratio of 3.26x is near the high end of its historical range (1.4x to 3.4x since 2022), indicating a premium to book value. Compared to the Basic Materials sector, NEM's valuation is reasonable given its superior profitability, with a net margin of 32.06% and gross margin of 49.78%. The market appears to be pricing in optimistic gold price assumptions and continued margin expansion, leaving limited margin of safety if gold prices retreat. Overall, the stock is fairly valued to slightly undervalued relative to its growth prospects, but not deeply discounted.
From a risk/reward perspective, NEM offers a favorable setup with 9.3% upside to the analyst average target of $134.83 and a forward PE of 12.10x, which is attractive relative to its growth prospects. However, the stock is near the upper end of its 52-week range, and the bear case implies up to 45.7% downside to the analyst low target of $67.00. The biggest downside risk is a sharp gold price correction, which could trigger a sell-off. For long-term investors with a positive view on gold, NEM is a good buy at current levels, but position sizing should be disciplined. For short-term traders, the stock's low beta and recent consolidation suggest limited near-term catalysts.
NEM is more suitable for long-term investment due to its low beta of 0.543, strong free cash flow, and dividend yield of 1.00%, which provide stability and income. The company's two decades of gold reserves and ongoing debt reduction support a multi-year holding period. Short-term trading is less attractive given the stock's recent consolidation and the lack of near-term catalysts beyond gold price movements. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to ride out gold price cycles and benefit from potential multiple expansion. However, investors should monitor production trends and cost inflation quarterly, as these can impact the long-term thesis.
