Ollie's Bargain Outlet
OLLI
$66.31
+1.64%
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. is a discount retailer specializing in closeout merchandise and excess inventory, operating in the consumer defensive sector within the discount stores industry. The company differentiates itself through a treasure-hunt shopping experience, offering brand-name products at heavily discounted prices across categories like housewares, food, toys, and electronics, with a strong presence in the Eastern United States. Currently, the stock is under significant pressure due to a sharp decline of nearly 50% over the past year, driven by concerns over consumer spending and tariff impacts, though recent news suggests the selloff may be overdone, creating debate around a potential value opportunity.…
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet
$66.31
Related headlines
OLLI 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Ollie's Bargain Outlet's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $109.13 and implied upside of +64.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$109.13
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+64.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$70 - $152
Analyst target range
OLLI is covered by 15 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating 1.6 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $109.80, implying a 65.1% upside from the current price of $66.51. The distribution shows strong bullish sentiment, with 10 out of 15 analysts rating it Buy or equivalent. Recent ratings from Truist Securities (Buy), Goldman Sachs (Buy), and RBC Capital (Outperform) reinforce the bullish view, though JP Morgan downgraded from Overweight to Neutral in July 2026. The target price range spans from a low of $70.00 to a high of $152.00. The low target of $70.00 suggests only a 5.2% upside, reflecting downside risks from consumer weakness or tariff impacts. The high target of $152.00 implies a 128.5% upside, likely assuming a return to historical margins and growth rates. The wide spread between low and high ($70 to $152) indicates high uncertainty about the company's near-term trajectory. The consensus remains bullish, but the recent downgrade by JP Morgan and the sharp stock decline suggest caution is warranted.
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Bulls vs Bears: OLLI Investment Factors
OLLI presents a classic value-versus-value-trap debate. On the bull side, the company has strong fundamentals: improving margins, low debt, positive free cash flow, and a forward P/E of 13.1x that suggests significant earnings growth ahead. Analyst consensus is bullish, with an average target implying 65% upside. On the bear side, the stock is in a deep downtrend, revenue growth is decelerating, and macro headwinds from tariffs and consumer weakness pose risks. The single most important tension is whether the sharp decline is an overreaction creating a buying opportunity, or a rational repricing of lower growth prospects. Currently, the bearish technicals and decelerating growth give the bear case slightly stronger evidence, but the valuation and analyst support make it a high-risk, high-reward scenario.
Bullish
- Strong Forward Earnings Growth Expected: The forward P/E of 13.1x is significantly lower than the trailing P/E of 28.1x, implying the market expects earnings to nearly double. If realized, this would make the current valuation attractive.
- Healthy Margins and Profitability: Gross margin improved to 41.9% in Q1 2026 from 41.1% a year ago, and operating margin expanded to 11.5% from 10.9%. Net income grew 18.5% YoY to $56.4 million, demonstrating operational efficiency.
- Strong Balance Sheet with Low Debt: Debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.36, and the current ratio of 2.41 indicates ample liquidity. Free cash flow of $212.7 million TTM provides a cushion for operations and expansion.
- Analyst Consensus Bullish with High Upside: 15 analysts rate the stock a Buy (mean 1.6/5), with an average target of $109.80, implying 65.1% upside. The high target of $152 suggests 128.5% potential return if conditions improve.
Bearish
- Sharp Revenue Growth Deceleration: Revenue growth slowed from 17.8% YoY in Q1 2025 to 14.3% in Q1 2026. This deceleration, if persistent, could pressure the stock further and undermine the forward earnings expectations.
- Stock in Sustained Downtrend: The stock is down 49.6% over the past year, with accelerating declines of -14.1% in the last month and -29.9% in three months. Technical momentum remains bearish, trading near the 52-week low of $60.29.
- High Uncertainty and Wide Target Range: Analyst targets range from $70 (5.2% upside) to $152 (128.5% upside), reflecting extreme uncertainty. The low target barely exceeds the current price, indicating significant downside risk.
- Consumer and Tariff Headwinds: Recent news highlights concerns over consumer spending and tariff impacts on discount retailers. The stock's decline is company-specific, as evidenced by its underperformance versus the S&P 500 (relative strength -67.9% over 1 year).
OLLI Technical Analysis
OLLI is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock price falling 49.6% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 18.4% gain. The current price of $66.51 is just 46.9% of its 52-week range (low $60.29, high $141.74), trading near the low end, which typically signals either a value opportunity or a falling knife scenario. The stock's beta of 0.469 indicates it is less volatile than the market, but the magnitude of the decline suggests company-specific headwinds are dominating. Short-term momentum remains bearish, with the 1-month price change at -14.1% and the 3-month change at -29.9%, both accelerating to the downside. The 1-month relative strength versus the S&P 500 is -14.5%, indicating continued underperformance. This divergence from the broader market's positive 3-month return of 4.7% suggests OLLI is experiencing company-specific selling pressure rather than a market-wide pullback. The 52-week low of $60.29 provides immediate support, while the 52-week high of $141.74 represents major resistance. A breakdown below $60.29 would signal further downside risk, while a move above $141.74 would indicate a potential trend reversal. With a beta of 0.469, OLLI is significantly less volatile than the market, meaning its sharp decline is not driven by broad market moves but by idiosyncratic factors, which could lead to mean reversion if fundamentals stabilize.
Beta
0.47
0.47x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-56.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$60-$142
Price range past year
Annual Return
-49.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | OLLI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -10.5% | +0.8% |
| 3m | -26.5% | +3.5% |
| 6m | -41.4% | +7.2% |
| 1y | -49.7% | +16.5% |
| ytd | -40.4% | +8.4% |
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OLLI Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is solid but decelerating. In the most recent quarter (Q1 ending May 2, 2026), revenue was $658.9 million, up 14.3% year-over-year, compared to 17.8% growth in the prior-year quarter. Over the trailing four quarters, revenue has grown from $576.8 million (Q1 2025) to $658.9 million, showing consistent expansion. However, the deceleration from 17.8% to 14.3% YoY growth suggests the pace is slowing, which may weigh on the investment case if it continues. Profitability remains healthy, with net income of $56.4 million in Q1 2026, up from $47.6 million in the year-ago quarter, representing a net margin of 8.6%. Gross margin improved to 41.9% from 41.1% a year ago, indicating better cost management or pricing power. Operating margin was 11.5%, up from 10.9% in Q1 2025, showing margin expansion. The company is profitable and generating positive net income, with a trailing twelve-month net income of approximately $249 million. The balance sheet is strong, with a current ratio of 2.41 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, indicating low leverage. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $212.7 million, providing ample liquidity for operations and growth. Return on equity (ROE) is 12.7%, reflecting efficient capital use. The company has no dividend, reinvesting earnings into growth, which is typical for a retailer in expansion mode.
Quarterly Revenue
$658928000.0B
2026-05
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
41.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$212725000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is OLLI Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 28.1x, while the forward P/E is 13.1x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth in the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that earnings are expected to nearly double, which is aggressive and may reflect optimism about margin recovery or revenue acceleration. Compared to the industry average (discount stores), OLLI's trailing P/E of 28.1x appears elevated, but the forward P/E of 13.1x is more reasonable. The PEG ratio of 1.39 suggests the stock is fairly valued relative to its growth rate, though this depends on the accuracy of growth estimates. Historically, OLLI's trailing P/E has ranged from around 14x to 64x over the past few years. The current trailing P/E of 28.1x is near the middle of that range, but the forward P/E of 13.1x is near the lower end, indicating that the market is pricing in a recovery. The price-to-sales ratio of 2.55x is below the 5-year average of around 8-10x, suggesting the stock is cheap on a sales basis, which could be a value opportunity if the business stabilizes.
PE
28.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 15x~60x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: OLLI's revenue growth deceleration from 17.8% to 14.3% YoY is a key risk, as the forward P/E of 13.1x relies on earnings nearly doubling. If growth slows further, the stock could re-rate lower. The company has low debt (D/E 0.36) and positive free cash flow ($212.7M TTM), so balance sheet risk is minimal. However, the net margin of 8.6% is healthy but could compress if input costs rise or pricing power weakens. The trailing P/E of 28.1x is elevated relative to the industry, making the stock vulnerable to multiple compression if earnings disappoint.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 0.469 indicates low market correlation, but its 49.6% decline over the past year is company-specific, driven by fears of consumer spending slowdown and tariff impacts. The discount retail space is competitive, with players like Five Below also facing selloffs. The wide analyst target range ($70-$152) reflects high uncertainty. A downgrade by JP Morgan from Overweight to Neutral in July 2026 adds to the bearish sentiment. The stock's relative strength versus the S&P 500 is -67.9% over one year, showing persistent underperformance.
Worst-Case Scenario: If consumer spending weakens further and tariffs compress margins, revenue growth could decelerate below 10%, leading to earnings misses. The stock could fall to the 52-week low of $60.29, a 9.4% decline from the current price of $66.51. In a severe recession, the stock could test the historical max drawdown of -56.05%, implying a drop to around $29.20 from the 52-week high of $141.74. From the current price, a drop to $60.29 represents a -9.4% loss, but if fundamentals deteriorate further, losses could exceed 20%.
