Sirius XM
SIRI
$30.69
+1.42%
Sirius XM Holdings is a leading audio entertainment company in the US, operating satellite radio through SiriusXM and streaming music via Pandora. It dominates the satellite radio market with exclusive content and long-term auto partnerships that drive subscriber growth. The current investor narrative centers on a potential turnaround, fueled by a strategic partnership with YouTube, a potential iHeartMedia acquisition to expand into podcasting, and a recent analyst upgrade that has sparked renewed interest in the stock.…
SIRI
Sirius XM
$30.69
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SIRI 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Sirius XM's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $39.90 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$39.90
5 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
5
covering this stock
Price Range
$25 - $40
Analyst target range
Only 5 analysts cover Sirius XM, which is limited for a company of its size. The consensus recommendation is neutral, with a mix of ratings: Barrington Research rates it Outperform, Benchmark rates it Buy, while JP Morgan, Seaport Global, and Rosenblatt rate it Neutral. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS of $4.61 and forward P/E of 9.0, the implied target is around $41.5, suggesting significant upside from the current $30.51. However, the low target (based on low EPS estimate of $4.56) implies a price of $41.0, and the high target (EPS $4.76) implies $42.8. The range is narrow, indicating relatively high conviction among analysts. The implied upside to the average target is approximately +36%, which is bullish. Recent ratings actions include upgrades from JP Morgan (from Underweight to Neutral) and a downgrade from Seaport Global (from Buy to Neutral), reflecting mixed sentiment. The limited coverage means the stock may be less efficiently priced, offering opportunities for active investors.
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SIRI Technical Analysis
Sirius XM is in a strong uptrend, with the stock up 27.4% over the past year and currently trading at $30.51, near the top of its 52-week range ($19.77 to $30.61). At 99.7% of the 52-week high, the price is near resistance, suggesting bullish momentum but also potential overextension. The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 significantly, with a relative strength of 8.3 over one year versus the market's 19.1% gain. Short-term momentum is accelerating: the 1-month change is +6.0% and the 3-month change is +28.2%, both outpacing the S&P 500's -1.3% and +13.6% respectively. This divergence from the broader market indicates strong stock-specific catalysts, such as the YouTube partnership and acquisition speculation. The 1-month relative strength of 7.3 confirms near-term outperformance. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $19.77, while resistance is at $30.61. A breakout above $30.61 would signal a new uptrend leg, while a breakdown below $19.77 could indicate a trend reversal. The stock's beta of 0.96 suggests volatility roughly in line with the market, meaning it is not a high-beta name despite its recent rally.
Beta
0.96
0.96x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-18.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$20-$31
Price range past year
Annual Return
+26.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SIRI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +11.2% | +2.0% |
| 3m | +29.5% | +10.6% |
| 6m | +40.9% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +26.5% | +20.4% |
| ytd | +49.6% | +10.2% |
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SIRI Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been relatively flat, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting $2.193 billion, up just 0.2% year-over-year from $2.188 billion in Q4 2024. Over the past four quarters, revenue has hovered around $2.1-2.2 billion, indicating stagnation. The subscription and circulation segment ($1.626 billion) is the primary driver, while advertising ($491 million) provides a secondary stream. The lack of top-line growth is a concern, but the company is focusing on cost efficiencies and new initiatives like the YouTube partnership to reignite growth. Profitability remains solid: net income in Q4 2025 was $99 million, though this was down from $287 million in Q4 2024 due to higher costs. Gross margin was 48.0%, stable year-over-year (47.9% in Q4 2024). Operating margin compressed to 10.3% from 23.1% a year ago, reflecting increased SG&A and other expenses. The company is profitable but margins are under pressure. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.84, and free cash flow (TTM) is $1.245 billion, providing ample coverage for interest and dividends. ROE is 7.0%, and the current ratio of 0.30 is low, typical for a subscription-based business with predictable cash flows. The company generated $680 million in operating cash flow in Q4 2025, supporting its dividend and buybacks.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.2B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.23%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
47.97%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SIRI Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 8.4x, while the forward P/E is 9.0x, implying modest earnings growth expectations. The gap between trailing and forward is small, suggesting the market expects stable earnings. Compared to the industry average (not provided, but broadcasting typically trades at 12-15x), SIRI's P/E of 8.4x appears discounted. The PEG ratio is -0.06, indicating negative earnings growth expectations, which is consistent with the flat revenue trend. Historically, the stock's trailing P/E has ranged from around 6x to 20x over the past five years. At 8.4x, it is near the lower end of its historical range, suggesting the market is pricing in pessimism about future growth. The price-to-book ratio of 0.58 is also low, reflecting a market value below book value, which can be a value signal but also indicates low growth expectations.
PE
8.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -1x~29x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
7.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
